Brexit a No-Brainer

Never having merged currencies with the EU means Britain can sneak
away relatively unscathed and be potentially stronger for it.

Unity is such a strong word. Isn't unity want we want? If you ask people if they view "unity" favorably or unfavorably, chances are they will view it favorably without even knowing what sort of unity we are talking about. That is because most of us really just want to get along.

However, the European Union honeymoon is long over, and I believe that it is in Great Britain's best interest to go it alone from here.

Here are some reasons why:

• They already have their own currency and central bank.
• Their economy is strong, with unemployment at 5.4% and headed lower.
• Their debt to GPD is 90%, which is lower than France, higher than Germany, but not out of control (yet).
• There is huge migrant pressure at their doorstep.
• The Greece/Spain/Portugal debt crisis is not over yet.
• A lower pound in a relatively low-inflation environment would make their exports into the EU more competitive.
• Scotland rejected secession in a definitive manner, which means that Great Britain is stronger going forward and does not need the EU as much as it would otherwise. 

So far, the EU has dodged a few bullets, not the least of which is the looming potential default of Greece, Spain and Portugal. If and when that happens, the impact on the larger EU partners will be huge. If Britain leaves now they can avoid having to foot the bill for southern european profligacy.

Since Great Britain never gave up the pound sterling (and, rightly so), they could be in a unique position if they decouple from the EU and take steps to gradually weaken their currency relative to the euro and dollar. Such a move would bolster their industrial output by making their exports less expensive.

Finally, while Great Britain faces a tight labor market and is in need of more skilled laborers, it is better for them to control that flow and be selective as far as who they let in and who they do not.

Basically, I don't see the clear advantage to Great Britain of staying in the EU other than a love of a word, "unity".

Follow-up 8-4-18

With UK-EU negotiations stalling, the world press is ratching up the fear quotient, warning that Britain will suffer, amongst other things:

• Massive food shortages
• Loss of manufacturing facilities employing tens of thousands of people
• The failure of their nuclear power plants
• The loss of countless jobs in the financial sector

However, these fears are solely based on the theory that Brussels decides to impose self-destructive trade barriers with the UK after they leave the common market.

Britain is not seeking any trade barriers whatsoever, and wants completely free trade with the bloc. EU negotiators are presenting the possibility of vindictive retributory actions 

Instead, leaving the common market will permit the UK to free itself from cumbersome EU regulations that will make it more competitive. I predict, for example:

• Greater money flows into UK investment banks as financial regulations are relaxed.
• An increase in jobs in the UK as Britains loosen strict EU work rules.
• No net effect on food trade.

Brussels realizes that the UK will be at a competitive advantage to the bloc countries, which is why they are going to use every trick in the book to scare the Brits out of leaving.