Superspreader or Superfaker?

 

Updated 10/29/2020

When the news broke that Hope Hicks, a trusted member of the Trump inner circle since 2014, had tested positive for COVID-19 I knew she was not going to be the only shoe to drop.

To date, at least 36 shoes have dropped, mostly related to a poorly organized Rose Garden ceremony to announce a new Supreme Court pick on September 26 that failed to implement even the most rudimentary COVID-19 precautions.

But, the largest shoe to drop so far is that of the President himself, who reported via Tweet in the wee hours of Friday, October 2 that he and the First Lady had tested positive for COVID-19.

Since the President's Tweet, the news reports related to his diagnosis and treatment have been extremely confusing and conflicting.

For example, the lead physician at Walter Reed tasked with caring for the President, Dr. Sean P. Conley, reported a short time after Trump's arrival to the hospital that he was feeling fine and had not received supplemental oxygen, a press conference that Chief of Staff Mark Meadows was sure to have seen. However, Mr. Meadows announced publicly on Fox News Saturday evening that the President's blood oxygen levels had dropped to 94% (which is statistically still in the range of normal for a fingertip monitor) and he had been given 2 liters of supplemental oxygen (which is virtually nothing at all, equivalent to about 20 seconds of oxygen delivered by a simple mask). Since protocol (and HIPAA laws) dictate that the lead physician in charge of care control the dissemination of information related to the health of the patient, what could have possibly compelled the President's Chief of Staff to go public with this conflicting information? Mr. Meadows had also added that the President was feverish and extremely lethargic.

Dr. Conley continued over the next several days, to provide a stream of reports that only served to confuse the public and health professionals who were watching. It was becoming quite apparent that Dr. Conley was not reporting the facts, but was instead reporting the story that the White House wanted the public to hear. By Sunday afternoon the stories coming out of the White House and the stories coming out of Walter Reed were so conflicted that the White House apparently instructed Dr. Conley to inform the press that he had been lying all along, leaving the White House narrative as the only "honest" version.

So, since it is safe to assume that none of the information coming out of the White House or out of Walter Reed can be trusted, we have to analyze what we DO know to be fact.

1. The White House announced that the President was mildly symptomatic on Friday, and witnesses reported that the President seemed to be "under the weather" and "tired" on Thursday. The White House subsequently reported that the President was suffering from respiratory insufficiency on Friday when he was administered supplemental oxygen. However, from what we know about the evolution of COVID-19, there is almost always a period of 7-10 days between the onset of first symptoms and the onset of breathing difficulties. Therefore, the President was not symptomatic long enough to develop viral pneumonia.
   
   
2. The President walked to Marine One and climbed the steps unaided. This was only minutes after allegedly receiving supplemental oxygen. Because of the risk of a serious fall, anyone receiving supplemental oxygen should not walk or climb stairs without support. Could the President have been wobbly, but insisted on walking to Marine One unaided for the optics? Yes, that is possible, but he certainly did not look like someone who was having trouble catching his breath or staying upright.
   
   
3. Dr. Conley reported that the President was doing "very well" and required no extraordinary measures after arriving to Walter Reed. Mark Meadows disputed that a few days later. Why did Mark Meadows do that? The answer might be that the President did not contract COVID-19 at all and the White House was concerned that the virtual lack of symptoms and effects from the virus would raise suspicion that the White House was lying. Therefore, Mr. Meadows may have made announcements to give the public the idea that the President was actually suffering from a moderate case of COVID-19.
   
   
4. The President recorded two videos from Walter Reed that were shared publicly. In neither of these videos does the President seem weak or lethargic, nor does he ever stop to catch his breath or show any signs of any respiratory distress, which conflicts with reports that he needed supplemental oxygen on two separate occasions.
   
   
5. The President left Walter Reed for a now famous "joy ride" to wave at supporters, which begs the question, "Was he actively COVID-19 positive at the time?" Because, if he were positive then getting into a sealed off SUV with other people for the purpose of a publicity stunt begs reason. A simpler explanation could be that the President was COVID negative and therefore the joy ride was risk-free.
   
   
6. The President's physicians have not released any test data or any scans that could serve to substantiate the claim of an active viral infection, perhaps because there never was an active infection.
   
   
7. The drug trials of a monoclonal antibody treatment from Eli Lilly similar to the Regeneron treatment that the White House touted as a "cure" and a "miracle" have been stopped because the treament has shown to be ineffective in testing on humans.
   
   
8. After only four days at Walter Reed, the President returned to the White House, ripped off his face covering, and proceeded to shoot staged videos which were later set to music to project the image of a "conquering victor returning from battle", which only serves to fuel the idea that this was all staged.
   
   
9. Two days after returning to the White House the President has resumed his regular schedule, including holding meetings in the Oval Office, in spite of still being in what is typically considered to be the contagious phase of the illness. The White House is announcing that the President is now, miraculously, COVID-free but will not provide evidence of two sequential negative COVID tests that are prerequisite before determining that a patient is free of the virus.

So, while the evidence is circumstantial, it does paint a picture of a White House that invented the narrative that the President had contracted the coronavirus and developed COVID-19.

Why would they opt to do that? I can see several reasons:

1. The President has been working overtime since the outset of this pandemic in trying to convince the public that COVID-19 is not something we should fear because he does not want the virus to adversely effect economic output and employment. He has opposed mandatory shut-down orders because of the economic impact on businesses and employees. He has opposed mask wearing and social distancing measures because they spread fear. Therefore, the idea that a 74 year old man could get COVID-19 and be over it faster and with fewer symptoms than one might expect from a common cold would play right into that narrative. In fact, in one of the prepared video statements made mere minutes after his return to the White House from Walter Reed, an apparently healthy and vital President is seen saying the following:
   
   
   "I just left Walter Reed Medical Center, and it is really something very special: the doctors, the nurses, the first responders. And, I learned so much about Coronavirus. And, one thing that is for certain: don't let it dominate you. Don't be afraid of it. You're gonna beat it. We have the best medical equipment, we have the best medicines, all developed recently. And, you're gonna beat it. I went, I didn't feel so good. And two days ago, I could have left two days ago. Two days ago I felt great, like better than I have in a long time. I said just recently, better than 20 years ago. Don't let it dominate, don't let it take over your lives. Don't let that happen."
   
   
2. The President and the White House have been pushing the narrative that cures for COVID-19 exist, including antivirals, monoclonal and polyclonal antibodies, even malarial drugs and in what was later claimed to be a hoax or a joke, bright lights, ultraviolet lights, and common household disinfectants. If the public believes that cures for COVID-19 exist they are less likely to be afraid of it and more likely to go about business as usual. Therefore, the White House and Dr. Conley made sure to announce that they had thrown the veritable "kitchen sink" at the President's viral infection, yielding nothing short of a "cure", while evidence emerging more recently shows that these "cures" are, in fact, ineffective treatments.
   
   
3. A theme of the campaign has been the notion that Donald Trump is faster, stronger and more energetic than his opponent. What could possibly feed the myth better than beating COVID-19 in record time while making his hospital stay look more like a visit to the spa?

So, what can we conclude from all of this?

1. The narrative coming out the White House, which from the early stages of the pandemic has been one of minimization and denial, is not going to change in light of recent events. In effect, the White House, in their misguided efforts to keep the economy afloat, are actively driving the infection rate and virtually insuring that things will get much worse before they get better.
   
   
2. The hallmark of the government response to the pandemic has been the dissemination of fake, false and conflicting reports, going back to early CDC claims that the use of face masks could actually do more harm than good, and this latest White House effort indicates that they are prepared to double and triple down on their commitment to say and do whatever best suits their narrative which insures that important future measures, such as convincing the public that any possible vaccine is safe, are doomed to fail.