Friday, September 23, 2016

Doctor Death

Almost half a million dead --
Assad and Putin have much to celebrate.
The Syrian Civil War is on its way to half a million war dead, nearly twice the death rate of the rebellion put down by Assad's father 35 years ago. I always thought of Bashar al-Assad as a mild-manner, pro-western gentleman. At least, that was the image that he projected. It is clear to me now that he is a psychopathic sadist who has little regard for the people of his country. I'm sorry, but if my beloved country was in the throes of one of the worst humanitarian crises in modern times I would NOT be caught smiling for a photo op.

How did the world allow Syria to get to this point? Was there anything anyone could have done to prevent this level of bloodshed? I believe that there is, and I believe that Syria could be peaceful today if certain things had been done years ago.

Quite early in the conflict the Obama Administration drew a red line in the sand: if Assad were to use chemical weapons against its citizens he would face consequences. On the 21st of August of 2013 that line was crossed, when rockets with sarin gas landed on the rebel-occupied city of Ghouta, Syria to devastating effect.

Some of the almost 1,500 victim of the nerve gas attack.
Unfortunately, neither the U.S. nor NATO acted, which left a gap into which Russia has stepped, thereby insuring that the Assad regime will retain control of Syria and that the conflict will continue with no end in sight.

So, what could have changed this outcome? What needed to happen as early on as possible was for Assad to feel enough pressure to force a negotiated outcome, and there were a few things the U.S. and NATO could have easily done in response to the gas attack to put strong pressure on Assad:
  • Bomb the airstrips to prevent aircraft from taking off and landing.
  • Create a naval blockade to control the flow of weapons into Syria.
  • Use drones to target and destroy missile batteries whenever they are used to launch missiles.
  • Use superior U.S. air power to keep Syrian aircraft grounded.
These actions would have leveled the playing field and would, in my opinion, have quickly forced brokered negotiations that would have led to a transition government with international support.

Unfortunately, President Obama, while making it clear he did not need Congress in order to take military action and acknowledging that failing to act in response to the chemical weapons attack would make a mockery of Western resolve, deferred to Congress who debated a 60 day war authorization but ultimately failed to pass anything.

Now, instead of a peaceful outcome, the Syrians are faced with a war that could easily go on for 10 years or more, costing over a million lives, displacing over 15 million people, creating regional instability and providing opportunities for Islamist groups to gain strength, all the time promising little hope that the despotic authoritarian regime whose abuses led to the rebellion will ever be deposed.

Nice work, World.

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