Wait, I Won!

Some Predictions for Trump's First Term

Economy

Expect interest rates to rise and the dollar to fall, with inflation ticking up significantly by the mid-point of the first term. The U.S. will pressure China to stop selling the Yuan and allow it to float, which will mean that the Chinese will have to start selling the Treasury Notes that they have accumulated. Between a lower dollar and higher tariffs, prices for entire baskets of goods will increase. The stimulative effects of the lower dollar and higher import costs will not be instantaneous, and it will be rough sledding while U.S. manufacturing tries to gear back up. Meanwhile, the U.S. debt will explode, which will undermine confidence in the greenback, further pressuring the value of the dollar and driving interest rates even higher. The march back to a booming U.S. manufacturing sector could become quite a slog.

Geopolitics

Apart from some sort of grandiose show of force to crush ISIS (probably in cooperation with the Assad regime and the Russian military), I expect U.S. military spending to decline, not increase. U.S. support will tend to gravitate toward strong-arm leaders who can maintain regional order. The notion of the U.S. as 'global cop' is over with. Our allies should be ready to defend themselves, and we will gladly sell them the arms they need to do so. In other words, it will be a good time to be an authoritarian dictator, and concerns about violations of human rights will be largely ignored.

Infrastructure

Think bridges, bridges and more bridges. Plus, airports. Pretty much everything Trump said he would do infrastructure-wise he will attempt to do, and he'll find little resistance in Congress to his appropriation bills.

Education

Say goodbye to the Dept. of Education and to Common Core. Say hello to taxpayer-funded school vouchers for private and parochial school students. Charter schools will also see a rise, but I expect the expansion of the voucher program to be the biggest change.

Obamacare

I don't expect that we will go back to a situation where we have as many Americans without health insurance as we did under George W. Bush, but I do expect rates to start to reflect risk, which will mean higher rates and higher deductibles for those who are obese or with preexisting conditions. At the same time, I don't expect the federal subsidy to keep pace with these higher rates, so many families will be adversely affected and, ultimately, driven off the insurance rolls. Or, fixing Obamacare could prove too messy and we could simply go back to what we had before.

The Environment

In a word: toast. I expect huge swathes of U.S. coastal real estate to be under water regularly before the end of Trump's second term. Who is going to pay for all that damage? I don't anticipate any major federally-funded civil engineering projects to ward off the inevitable sea rise, even though the social and economics impacts will be huge. Or, you could just move to higher ground.

Immigration

Apart from efforts to better secure the border with Mexico, a major effort will be undertaken to identify and vet all undocumented aliens residing in the U.S., and those who do not pass muster will be deported along with their families, including minor children who may have been born in this country. Those who can be shown to have no criminal history and who are gainfully employed will be given a path to legal residency. Simultaneously, I expect the Trump Administration to dramatically increase the number of H1B visas, subject to extensive background checks, to provide labor to those industries (particularly agriculture) where labor is scarce. How successful these efforts will be overall is questionable, as their implementation will be fraught with hazards and legal challenges. On one hand, I would expect many families to voluntarily return to their countries as they have been doing in large numbers since 2008. On the other hand, the deportations will be expensive, heart-wrenching and disruptive to families and communities.